Impied Odds

Now if we were playing limit hold'em this article would basically be over at this point. But the great thing about no limit hold'em is that the stacks are often really deep and of course you can bet as much as you have in front of you at any given time. So while it is not an exact science we need to roughly ask ourselves how much we think we can get out of our opponent should we hit our hand. Is this the type of opponent that is a strong player who is capable of making the tough fold when the obvious draw comes in? Or is it a recreational player who will perhaps moan and complain but pay you off in the end?

If it is the latter we can probably depend on getting a big bet out of him on the river which might change our decision in example #2 above from a fold to a call. However versus the disciplined regular who will not pay us off, we should still fold.

Implied odds are a difficult thing to quantify like pot odds and hand odds because there are so many different factors involved. For instance a big consideration is the likely strength of your opponent's hand. If you are up against the type of opponent that only bets when they have an extremely strong hand, then maybe you can make a fairly loose call with a longshot draw because you know that they will be in a very difficult situation (and likely to make the crying call) should you hit.

On the flip side, a big mistake that I see a lot of players at the micros making is misjudging their implied odds against aggressive opponents. For instance I am a big advocate of raising a ton of hands from late position. I just made two videos for my blog about it in fact ( Part 1 and Part 2). I am raising upwards of 50% of my hands in some cases from the cutoff and button positions. Set-mining me out of the blinds would not make much sense because the vast majority of the time I will have absolutely nothing to pay you off with when you finally hit.

Lastly, there are considerations with implied odds to be made concerning the deceptiveness and strength of your draw.

If you have,

K5

for instance on a board like,

346A

probably even the greenest of villains isn't likely to pay you off much because the draw is so obvious when it comes in. Also your draw is not to the nuts. Somebody could have 58 and you will lose a big pot should you hit.

However if you have a hand like,

KJ

on a board like,

TQ83

your draw is much stronger because it is far better hidden when it comes in. You always want to  consider what your opponent can have as well. In this case there are many more likely two pair hands that he could have or will make should the 9 or A come (people just play big cards more often than small cards).

Finally, our draw is to the nuts both ways. And we have a chance to cooler somebody that has a jack by making a higher straight should the 9 come.

I hope this discussion has been helpful for you all. As you can see I am no math expert. I consider myself around average in my knowledge of it. And at the poker table I use it sparingly. However it is important to know a few of the fundamental principles. And you should try your best to know them by memory. If you are off by a little bit don't worry about it though. A flush draw will roughly hit 1 in 3 times from the flop and 1 in 5 times from the turn. See that chart that I linked above if you are a true nerd and want to know the exact values!

Please leave your comments or questions below. Let me know how badly I suck at the maths. Also please hit the like or tweet buttons to share it with others. It really helps me out :) 

By http://www.blackrain79.com/